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Attributing the impacts of land‐cover changes in temperate regions on surface temperature and heat fluxes to specific causes: Results from the first LUCID set of simulations

Identifieur interne : 005724 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 005723; suivant : 005725

Attributing the impacts of land‐cover changes in temperate regions on surface temperature and heat fluxes to specific causes: Results from the first LUCID set of simulations

Auteurs : J. P. Boisier [France] ; N. De Noblet-Ducoudré [France] ; A. J. Pitman [Australie] ; F. T. Cruz [Australie, Philippines] ; C. Delire [France] ; B. J. J. M. Van Den Hurk [Pays-Bas] ; M. K. Van Der Molen [Pays-Bas] ; C. Müller [Allemagne] ; A. Voldoire [France]

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:2B5D90617EF23736DBD84E8673C8712244C196DC

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Surface cooling in temperate regions is a common biogeophysical response to historical Land‐Use induced Land Cover Change (LULCC). The climate models involved in LUCID show, however, significant differences in the magnitude and the seasonal partitioning of the temperature change. The LULCC‐induced cooling is directed by decreases in absorbed solar radiation, but its amplitude is 30 to 50% smaller than the one that would be expected from the sole radiative changes. This results from direct impacts on the total turbulent energy flux (related to changes in land‐cover properties other than albedo, such as evapotranspiration efficiency or surface roughness) that decreases at all seasons, and thereby induces a relative warming in all models. The magnitude of those processes varies significantly from model to model, resulting on different climate responses to LULCC. To address this uncertainty, we analyzed the LULCC impacts on surface albedo, latent heat and total turbulent energy flux, using a multivariate statistical analysis to mimic the models' responses. The differences are explained by two major ‘features’ varying from one model to another: the land‐cover distribution and the simulated sensitivity to LULCC. The latter explains more than half of the inter‐model spread and resides in how the land‐surface functioning is parameterized, in particular regarding the evapotranspiration partitioning within the different land‐cover types, as well as the role of leaf area index in the flux calculations. This uncertainty has to be narrowed through a more rigorous evaluation of our land‐surface models.

Url:
DOI: 10.1029/2011JD017106


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Le document en format XML

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<keywords scheme="KwdEn" xml:lang="en">
<term>Absolute changes</term>
<term>Albedo</term>
<term>Anomaly</term>
<term>Available energy</term>
<term>Bare soil</term>
<term>Biogeophysical</term>
<term>Biogeophysical impacts</term>
<term>Blue bars</term>
<term>Boisier</term>
<term>Canopy interception</term>
<term>Clim</term>
<term>Climate change</term>
<term>Climate impacts</term>
<term>Climate models</term>
<term>Common perturbation</term>
<term>Community land model</term>
<term>Corresponding change</term>
<term>Corresponding drivers</term>
<term>Davin</term>
<term>Deciduous trees</term>
<term>Deforestation</term>
<term>Different amplitudes</term>
<term>Different forcings</term>
<term>Different parameterizations</term>
<term>Different sensitivities</term>
<term>Different types</term>
<term>Dispersion</term>
<term>Downward longwave radiation</term>
<term>Energy flux</term>
<term>Environmental predictors</term>
<term>Evapotranspiration</term>
<term>Evapotranspiration partitioning</term>
<term>Evergreen trees</term>
<term>Explanatory variables</term>
<term>Final spread</term>
<term>First order terms</term>
<term>Forcings</term>
<term>Forest fraction</term>
<term>Gcms</term>
<term>Geophys</term>
<term>Global</term>
<term>Global biogeochem</term>
<term>Global change biol</term>
<term>Global climate</term>
<term>Global climate models</term>
<term>Global ecol</term>
<term>Global land</term>
<term>Global planet</term>
<term>Heat flux</term>
<term>Heat fluxes</term>
<term>Historical lulcc</term>
<term>Important driver</term>
<term>Indirect impact</term>
<term>Individual lsms</term>
<term>Individual models</term>
<term>Individual results</term>
<term>Inherent responses</term>
<term>Klein goldewijk</term>
<term>Land surface models</term>
<term>Latent heat</term>
<term>Latent heat flux</term>
<term>Leaf area index</term>
<term>Lett</term>
<term>Longwave radiation</term>
<term>Lsms</term>
<term>Lsms evaluation</term>
<term>Lucid</term>
<term>Lucid models</term>
<term>Lucid simulations</term>
<term>Lulcc</term>
<term>Lulcc impacts</term>
<term>Lulccinduced anomalies</term>
<term>Model acronyms</term>
<term>Model differences</term>
<term>Model responses</term>
<term>Model sensitivity</term>
<term>Models show</term>
<term>Multivariate</term>
<term>Multivariate regression analysis</term>
<term>Naea</term>
<term>Naea region</term>
<term>Narrows</term>
<term>Northern hemisphere</term>
<term>Oleson</term>
<term>Other models</term>
<term>Other variables</term>
<term>Parameterizations</term>
<term>Partitioning</term>
<term>Pasture fractions</term>
<term>Perturbation</term>
<term>Perturbed forms</term>
<term>Pitman</term>
<term>Polynomial expansions</term>
<term>Positive feedback</term>
<term>Precipitation</term>
<term>Predictands</term>
<term>Predictor</term>
<term>Preindustrial</term>
<term>Preindustrial period</term>
<term>Preindustrial times</term>
<term>Radiative</term>
<term>Reconstructed</term>
<term>Reconstructed responses</term>
<term>Regression model</term>
<term>Regression models</term>
<term>Regression results</term>
<term>Residual term</term>
<term>Robust</term>
<term>Robust impacts</term>
<term>Seasonal anomalies</term>
<term>Second term</term>
<term>Shortwave</term>
<term>Shortwave radiation</term>
<term>Significant differences</term>
<term>Simulation</term>
<term>Snow content</term>
<term>Soil evaporation</term>
<term>Soil moisture</term>
<term>Soil moisture memory</term>
<term>Solar radiation</term>
<term>Solid line</term>
<term>Specific causes</term>
<term>Statistical models</term>
<term>Summer time</term>
<term>Surface albedo</term>
<term>Surface albedo changes</term>
<term>Surface climate</term>
<term>Surface cooling</term>
<term>Surface energy balance</term>
<term>Surface energy budget</term>
<term>Surface properties</term>
<term>Surface roughness</term>
<term>Surface temperature</term>
<term>Surface temperature anomalies</term>
<term>Surface temperature changes</term>
<term>Surface temperatures</term>
<term>Temperate</term>
<term>Temperate regions</term>
<term>Temperature change</term>
<term>Temperature changes</term>
<term>Temporal covariability</term>
<term>Time series</term>
<term>Total evapotranspiration</term>
<term>Turbulence energy</term>
<term>Various drivers</term>
<term>Various forcings</term>
<term>Various models</term>
<term>Various predictors</term>
<term>Vegetation</term>
<term>West eurasia</term>
<term>White bars</term>
<term>Wind speed</term>
<term>albedo</term>
<term>amplitude</term>
<term>climate</term>
<term>cooling</term>
<term>efficiency</term>
<term>energy transfer</term>
<term>evapotranspiration</term>
<term>heat flux</term>
<term>heat transfer</term>
<term>land cover</term>
<term>land use</term>
<term>latent heat</term>
<term>roughness</term>
<term>sensitivity analysis</term>
<term>simulation</term>
<term>solar radiation</term>
<term>statistical analysis</term>
<term>surface temperature</term>
<term>temperate zone</term>
<term>uncertainties</term>
<term>warming</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Albedo</term>
<term>Amplitude</term>
<term>Analyse sensibilité</term>
<term>Analyse statistique</term>
<term>Chaleur latente</term>
<term>Climat</term>
<term>Efficacité</term>
<term>Energie turbulence</term>
<term>Evapotranspiration</term>
<term>Flux chaleur</term>
<term>Incertitude</term>
<term>Modèle climat</term>
<term>Narrows</term>
<term>Occupation sol</term>
<term>Rayonnement solaire</term>
<term>Refroidissement</term>
<term>Rugosité</term>
<term>Réchauffement</term>
<term>Simulation</term>
<term>Température superficielle</term>
<term>Température surface</term>
<term>Transfert chaleur</term>
<term>Transfert énergie</term>
<term>Utilisation terrain</term>
<term>Zone tempérée</term>
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<keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en">
<term>Absolute changes</term>
<term>Albedo</term>
<term>Anomaly</term>
<term>Available energy</term>
<term>Bare soil</term>
<term>Biogeophysical</term>
<term>Biogeophysical impacts</term>
<term>Blue bars</term>
<term>Boisier</term>
<term>Canopy interception</term>
<term>Clim</term>
<term>Climate change</term>
<term>Climate impacts</term>
<term>Common perturbation</term>
<term>Community land model</term>
<term>Corresponding change</term>
<term>Corresponding drivers</term>
<term>Davin</term>
<term>Deciduous trees</term>
<term>Deforestation</term>
<term>Different amplitudes</term>
<term>Different forcings</term>
<term>Different parameterizations</term>
<term>Different sensitivities</term>
<term>Different types</term>
<term>Dispersion</term>
<term>Downward longwave radiation</term>
<term>Energy flux</term>
<term>Environmental predictors</term>
<term>Evapotranspiration</term>
<term>Evapotranspiration partitioning</term>
<term>Evergreen trees</term>
<term>Explanatory variables</term>
<term>Final spread</term>
<term>First order terms</term>
<term>Forcings</term>
<term>Forest fraction</term>
<term>Gcms</term>
<term>Geophys</term>
<term>Global</term>
<term>Global biogeochem</term>
<term>Global change biol</term>
<term>Global climate</term>
<term>Global climate models</term>
<term>Global ecol</term>
<term>Global land</term>
<term>Global planet</term>
<term>Heat flux</term>
<term>Heat fluxes</term>
<term>Historical lulcc</term>
<term>Important driver</term>
<term>Indirect impact</term>
<term>Individual lsms</term>
<term>Individual models</term>
<term>Individual results</term>
<term>Inherent responses</term>
<term>Klein goldewijk</term>
<term>Land surface models</term>
<term>Latent heat</term>
<term>Latent heat flux</term>
<term>Leaf area index</term>
<term>Lett</term>
<term>Longwave radiation</term>
<term>Lsms</term>
<term>Lsms evaluation</term>
<term>Lucid</term>
<term>Lucid models</term>
<term>Lucid simulations</term>
<term>Lulcc</term>
<term>Lulcc impacts</term>
<term>Lulccinduced anomalies</term>
<term>Model acronyms</term>
<term>Model differences</term>
<term>Model responses</term>
<term>Model sensitivity</term>
<term>Models show</term>
<term>Multivariate</term>
<term>Multivariate regression analysis</term>
<term>Naea</term>
<term>Naea region</term>
<term>Northern hemisphere</term>
<term>Oleson</term>
<term>Other models</term>
<term>Other variables</term>
<term>Parameterizations</term>
<term>Partitioning</term>
<term>Pasture fractions</term>
<term>Perturbation</term>
<term>Perturbed forms</term>
<term>Pitman</term>
<term>Polynomial expansions</term>
<term>Positive feedback</term>
<term>Precipitation</term>
<term>Predictands</term>
<term>Predictor</term>
<term>Preindustrial</term>
<term>Preindustrial period</term>
<term>Preindustrial times</term>
<term>Radiative</term>
<term>Reconstructed</term>
<term>Reconstructed responses</term>
<term>Regression model</term>
<term>Regression models</term>
<term>Regression results</term>
<term>Residual term</term>
<term>Robust</term>
<term>Robust impacts</term>
<term>Seasonal anomalies</term>
<term>Second term</term>
<term>Shortwave</term>
<term>Shortwave radiation</term>
<term>Significant differences</term>
<term>Simulation</term>
<term>Snow content</term>
<term>Soil evaporation</term>
<term>Soil moisture</term>
<term>Soil moisture memory</term>
<term>Solar radiation</term>
<term>Solid line</term>
<term>Specific causes</term>
<term>Statistical models</term>
<term>Summer time</term>
<term>Surface albedo</term>
<term>Surface albedo changes</term>
<term>Surface climate</term>
<term>Surface cooling</term>
<term>Surface energy balance</term>
<term>Surface energy budget</term>
<term>Surface properties</term>
<term>Surface roughness</term>
<term>Surface temperature</term>
<term>Surface temperature anomalies</term>
<term>Surface temperature changes</term>
<term>Surface temperatures</term>
<term>Temperate</term>
<term>Temperate regions</term>
<term>Temperature change</term>
<term>Temperature changes</term>
<term>Temporal covariability</term>
<term>Time series</term>
<term>Total evapotranspiration</term>
<term>Various drivers</term>
<term>Various forcings</term>
<term>Various models</term>
<term>Various predictors</term>
<term>Vegetation</term>
<term>West eurasia</term>
<term>White bars</term>
<term>Wind speed</term>
</keywords>
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<term>Climat</term>
<term>Offre énergétique</term>
<term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Déboisement</term>
<term>Simulation</term>
<term>Zone tempérée</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract">Surface cooling in temperate regions is a common biogeophysical response to historical Land‐Use induced Land Cover Change (LULCC). The climate models involved in LUCID show, however, significant differences in the magnitude and the seasonal partitioning of the temperature change. The LULCC‐induced cooling is directed by decreases in absorbed solar radiation, but its amplitude is 30 to 50% smaller than the one that would be expected from the sole radiative changes. This results from direct impacts on the total turbulent energy flux (related to changes in land‐cover properties other than albedo, such as evapotranspiration efficiency or surface roughness) that decreases at all seasons, and thereby induces a relative warming in all models. The magnitude of those processes varies significantly from model to model, resulting on different climate responses to LULCC. To address this uncertainty, we analyzed the LULCC impacts on surface albedo, latent heat and total turbulent energy flux, using a multivariate statistical analysis to mimic the models' responses. The differences are explained by two major ‘features’ varying from one model to another: the land‐cover distribution and the simulated sensitivity to LULCC. The latter explains more than half of the inter‐model spread and resides in how the land‐surface functioning is parameterized, in particular regarding the evapotranspiration partitioning within the different land‐cover types, as well as the role of leaf area index in the flux calculations. This uncertainty has to be narrowed through a more rigorous evaluation of our land‐surface models.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Pays-Bas</li>
<li>Philippines</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Brandebourg</li>
<li>Midi-Pyrénées</li>
<li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li>
<li>Île-de-France</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Gif-sur-Yvette</li>
<li>Potsdam</li>
<li>Toulouse</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="France">
<region name="Île-de-France">
<name sortKey="Boisier, J P" sort="Boisier, J P" uniqKey="Boisier J" first="J. P." last="Boisier">J. P. Boisier</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Boisier, J P" sort="Boisier, J P" uniqKey="Boisier J" first="J. P." last="Boisier">J. P. Boisier</name>
<name sortKey="Boisier, J P" sort="Boisier, J P" uniqKey="Boisier J" first="J. P." last="Boisier">J. P. Boisier</name>
<name sortKey="De Noblet Ucoudre, N" sort="De Noblet Ucoudre, N" uniqKey="De Noblet Ucoudre N" first="N." last="De Noblet-Ducoudré">N. De Noblet-Ducoudré</name>
<name sortKey="Delire, C" sort="Delire, C" uniqKey="Delire C" first="C." last="Delire">C. Delire</name>
<name sortKey="Voldoire, A" sort="Voldoire, A" uniqKey="Voldoire A" first="A." last="Voldoire">A. Voldoire</name>
</country>
<country name="Australie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Pitman, A J" sort="Pitman, A J" uniqKey="Pitman A" first="A. J." last="Pitman">A. J. Pitman</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Cruz, F T" sort="Cruz, F T" uniqKey="Cruz F" first="F. T." last="Cruz">F. T. Cruz</name>
</country>
<country name="Philippines">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Cruz, F T" sort="Cruz, F T" uniqKey="Cruz F" first="F. T." last="Cruz">F. T. Cruz</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Pays-Bas">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Van Den Hurk, B J J M" sort="Van Den Hurk, B J J M" uniqKey="Van Den Hurk B" first="B. J. J. M." last="Van Den Hurk">B. J. J. M. Van Den Hurk</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Van Der Molen, M K" sort="Van Der Molen, M K" uniqKey="Van Der Molen M" first="M. K." last="Van Der Molen">M. K. Van Der Molen</name>
<name sortKey="Van Der Molen, M K" sort="Van Der Molen, M K" uniqKey="Van Der Molen M" first="M. K." last="Van Der Molen">M. K. Van Der Molen</name>
</country>
<country name="Allemagne">
<region name="Brandebourg">
<name sortKey="Muller, C" sort="Muller, C" uniqKey="Muller C" first="C." last="Müller">C. Müller</name>
</region>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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